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Where are our 3 year olds??


20th September 2023
By Admin.
This week (Sept. 19 - 22) we see the first round of heats for the NSW Breeders Challenge 'Major Series' for 2023 -- but a review of the nominations for the 3-year old Series highlights a desperately worrying trend: A LACK OF YOUNG HORSES! With just 98 nominations across both sexes, spread across four tracks (Menangle Park / Bathurst / Riverina / and Newcastle) there are of course many races with 'sub-optimal' fields. The worst examples

 

This week (Sept. 19 - 22) we see the first round of heats for the NSW Breeders Challenge 'Major Series' for 2023  -- but a review of the nominations for the 3-year-old Series highlights a desperately worrying trend: A LACK OF YOUNG HORSES!  

With just 98 nominations across both sexes, spread across four tracks (Menangle Park / Bathurst / Riverina / and Newcastle) there are of course many races with 'sub-optimal' fields.   With the worst examples being:

  • just 7 starters in the C&G Heat at Riverina Paceway, Wagga
  • just 6 starters in the Fillies Heat at Newcastle Paceway **

** and we even needed one (VINETTE) to back up from Wednesday at Bathurst in order to get to six!

Moreover, we see that only two regions (Western Districts and Metropolitan) managed to actually stage multiple heats per sex division.  This is unprecedented from our experience!  

And remember that these are foals conceived in 2018 ... that is BEFORE the introductions of Stallion Book Limits, and the crippling Stallion Tax.  

At this rate, and based on declining foal numbers in recent years, come 2026 we shall likely see this once great Series (NSW's Premier Breeders' Futurity Race) reduced to nothing more than a Prelude and Final.  That's what it has come to ...

 

So what exactly are the 'raw numbers' :

  • just 46 individual Filly nominations - out of an eligible pool of 318 1.
  • just 51 individual C&G nominations (16+35) out of an eligible pool of 368 2.
    • so, in effect, less than 15% of the total Breeders Challenge-eligible 'pool' has been nominated for this prestigious series!
  • Fillies were split across the regions as follows:
    • 20 Western Districts
    • 11 Southern Districts (incl. one Emergency)
    • 10 Metropolitan Region
    •   6 Hunter / Northern Region
  • Colts & Geldings were split across the regions as follows:
    • 18 Metropolitan Region
    • 16 Western Districts
    • 10 Hunter / Northern Region
    •   7 Southern Districts

 

From a breeding perspective - which of course is a focus for us - there are six (6) overwhelmingly dominant sires, namely:

  • ART MAJOR  with 7 nominations ( 6 M + 1 F )
  • CAPTAINTREACHEROUS  with 8 nominations ( 5 M + 3 F )
  • FOR A REASON  with 7 nominations ( 4 M + 3 F )
  • HUNTSVILLE  with 10 nominations ( 5 M + 5 F )
  • SWEET LOU   with 11 nominations ( 7 M + 4 F )

and

  • TINTIN IN AMERICA  with 11 nominations ( 6 M + 5 F )

... as, between them, they account for more than 55% of the total nominations! 

All in all, we see thirty-one (31) different stallions being represented.  So a great diversity 3. ... which again serves to demonstrate that the arguments that underpinned the need for Stallion Book Limits (i.e. greater genetic diversity) were utterly spurious.

 

From a Broodmare Sire perspective, we see twenty-nine (29) different sires represented, so equally impressive from a diversity viewpoint.  Those with standout numbers (4+ representatives) are:

  • ART MAJOR  (9)
  • BETTORS DELIGHT  (8)
  • CHRISTIAN CULLEN  (7)
  • MACH THREE  (4)
  • ROCKNROLL HANOVER  (4)

... so, in effect, BMS 'royalty' comes to the fore, again.

 

Another fascinating question (statistic) is which stallions have achieved the best percentage based on their logged nomination numbers vs. their NSW BC eligible crop size.  There are a few surprises there - but it is fairest to report on that once the nominations have been received for the second round of heats (to be conducted at Menangle Park on October 10, 2023).  Watch this space...

 

Footnotes

1.  The figure of 318 relates to fillies actually eligible (i.e. paid up) as of now.  But the 'original pool' - at time of 'registration'  - was in fact 405

2.  The figure of 368 relates to C&Gs actually eligible (i.e.paid up) as of now.  But the 'original pool' - at time of 'registration' - was in fact 465

So we are only looking at an attrition rate of just 21%, in terms of people keeping their stock within this futurity system ... but the actual rate of translation into series nominations is an alarmingly low 14-15% in each sex cohort.  

One has to ask the question:  why is this the case, and what needs to be done to rectify it?

 

3.  On the matter of diversity, there are actually sixty-nine (69) different stallions represented on the current 'eligibility list' - so 38 failed to make the cut.

 

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